Analyzing Energy stocks’ 13F increases — if there’s a $150 oil “super spike,” these stocks could surge.

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Due to to years of lagging performance, investors have largely abandoned energy stocks. But with the recent explosion of U.S – Iran tensions, oil stocks are suddenly in the spotlight again. Investors must now consider the possibility that a Mid East war could cause a “super spike” in oil prices to $150 per barrel. It’s a good time to have some exposure to the energy sector. By analyzing changes in energy stocks 13Fs during Q3, investors can identify oil stocks that were under accumulation by hedge funds. (Q4 2019 13Fs must be filed by Feb. 15.)

Energy was the worst performing of the 11 S&P 500 sectors last year. Energy stocks have been the worst performer since Donald Trump’s 2016 election. In fact, Energy has been the worst performing sector four out of the last six years. Not surprisingly, the S&P 500 energy sector has its lowest weight in the overall S&P 500 index for at least the last two decades. It represents under 5% of the benchmark index, down from over 15% in mid 2008, when oil prices reached historic highs at over $140 a barrel, over 2.3 times current levels.

While a Middle East war remains improbable, should hostilities disrupt the global oil supply the stock market would most certainly take a hit. Energy stocks however, can be expected to move higher if crude spikes.

In 2016, oil prices surged off a 13-year low early in January and closed that year much higher. West Texas crude touched $36.50 in January, and closed 2016 over $57. It was the first time the S&P 500 Energy Index, up 27.4%, was the top performing sector since 2007. Many small cap energy stocks had huge years in 2016. For instance, Middle Resolute Energy (REN) and Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI) gained about 800% and 300%, respectively. Among large caps: Oneok (OKE) was up 138% and Continental Resources (CLR) gained 128%.

In 2016 crude rallied nearly 60% after hitting 13-year lows early that year. Many energy stocks soared.

Source: novelinvestor.com

One way to discover equity ideas in the oil sector is to analyze energy stocks 13Fs. Investors with over $100 million under management must disclose their long stock holdings via 13F filings within 45 days after the end of every calendar quarter. Stocks showing accumulation by well informed hedge funds may have improving prospects or offer unusual value.

Energy stocks 13Fs. Below are the stocks with the largest % increase in 13F holdings by institutions during Q3. You can use WhaleWisdom.com’s stock screener to further analyze 13F changes.
NameTickerIndustry# Funds held byMarket Cap13F Market CapQoQ % Change in 13F Market Cap
<$500m mkt cap
CONTANGO OIL & GAS CO.MCFOIL & GAS PRODUCERS34$76,412,400 $57,598,703 124.36%
ENVISION SOLAR INTERNATIONAL INCEVSIENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES12$29,127,000 $4,434,000 34.53%
NET ELEMENT INCNETEENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES15$18,457,600 $1,489,000 24.60%
TRANSATLANTIC PETROLEUM LTDTATOIL & GAS PRODUCERS27$31,378,500 $7,888,000 16.27%
$500m to $10b
TPI COMPOSITES INCTPICENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES135$647,814,500 $2,857,975,120 271.37%
CVR ENERGY INCCVIENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES220$4,280,567,400 $10,035,480,830 112.26%
BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS, INC.BLDPENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES98$1,130,630,400 $46,425,611 64.46%
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY LLCNFEENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES28$3,017,702,100 $220,411,000 56.58%
GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LIMITEDGOGLOIL & GAS PRODUCERS47$812,379,800 $311,026,000 16.53%
COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC.CRKOIL & GAS PRODUCERS76$1,295,237,700 $47,872,899 46.48%
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORPCPGOIL & GAS PRODUCERS136$2,106,720,000 $827,686,426 41.60%
DHT HOLDINGS INCDHTOIL & GAS PRODUCERS121$1,035,507,200 $403,731,017 35.92%
FRONTLINE LTD. (BERMUDA) SPONSORED ADRFROOIL & GAS PRODUCERS95$2,161,567,200 $361,695,938 31.77%
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INCSEDGENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES271$4,183,943,400 $3,108,234,592 28.83%
THERAPEUTICSMD INCTXMDOIL & GAS PRODUCERS149$870,804,200 $623,752,300 27.98%
>$10b mkt cap
BAKER HUGHES CLASS ABHGEENERGY EQUIPMENT & SERVICES451$22,190,729,600 $23,140,825,874 87.00%
MPLX L.P.MPLXOIL & GAS PRODUCERS323$28,596,989,500 $9,332,303,049 17.33%
TC ENERGY CORPTRPOIL & GAS PRODUCERS418$47,367,076,200 $30,445,483,577 12.14%
VISTRA ENERGY CPVSTOIL & GAS PRODUCERS351$13,344,195,200 $12,441,043,266 11.82%
CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS LPCQPOIL & GAS PRODUCERS150$21,412,602,400 $10,270,951,905 9.05%

Contact Mark about investing based on SEC filings and smart money disclosures.

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